The climate change literature and debate so far has largely focused on mitigation actions by the main contributors to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and global warming—developed market economies, as well as large industrializing economies like China, India, and Brazil. Small Island Developing States (SIDS) are not large contributors to the problem of climate change, but constitute the most impacted group of countries. While the key issue for SIDS is adaptation, these countries are also highly dependent on the tourism and travel industries, which are considered to be major emitters—and so are vulnerable to the effects of international climate mitigation policies in these sectors.

The travel and tourism sector is the key economic sector for SIDS in terms of earnings and jobs. Tourism earnings account for a significant share of the foreign exchange earnings in most SIDS. In the Caribbean, travel and tourism accounts for 14.8 percent of GDP, 12.9 percent of employment, and 14.6 percent of total exports. Oceania has a similar economic profile with GDP shares of travel and tourism at 11.7 percent, employment shares at 12.4 percent, and export shares at 16.9 percent of GDP. For both regions, however, ten-year forecasts (2018) by the World Travel and Tourism Council suggest declining contributions from travel and tourism to GDP and employment, but not to exports.

SIDS, which generally are long-haul destinations from key source markets like North America and Europe, have raised concerns regarding the potential adverse impact of prospective climate regulation of the air travel and shipping sectors and consumer preferences shifting in favor of short-haul destinations. Some governments and companies have also adopted environment-friendly charges, levies, and technologies, some of which have caused the cost of travel and transportation to increase. Such cost increases will likely have adverse effects on travel and tourism to SIDS. On the other hand, the cost of inaction on climate change could be even more dismal. According to a recent study:

1. The cost of inaction would amount to 22 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) for the Caribbean as a whole by 2100;
2. The costs of inaction will reach an astonishing 75 percent or more of GDP by 2100 in Dominica, Grenada, Haiti, St. Kitts & Nevis, and Turks & Caicos;
3. The Caribbean’s largest island, Cuba, faces a nearly 13 percent economic hit by mid-century, and a 27 percent loss by 2100, unless there is swift action to address climate change;
4. Losses from inaction would be less severe but still significant in Puerto Rico, reaching nearly 3 percent by 2050 and 6 percent by the end of the century; and
5. Colombia, with its long Caribbean coastline, faces permanent flooding of 1,900 square miles in low-lying coastal areas, affecting 1.4 million people.

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